Sport Real Madrid and Juventus are Liverpool's most likely Last 16 opponents

12:31  07 december  2017
12:31  07 december  2017 Source:   Read Sport

Probabilities of English sides drawing each possible Champions League opponent

  Probabilities of English sides drawing each possible Champions League opponent The draw for the Last 16 of the Champions League takes place on Monday and fans of the five Premier League clubs involved are already looking forward to finding out their next European opponents. At this stage of the competition, sides who won their group will face a runner-up from another group and vice versa. It’s important to note that teams can not be drawn against a side from their own country, nor can they be drawn against a side who they faced in the group stages. What that means is that, unlike in the FA Cup draw where the chances of drawing any team are equal, the probability of facing certain clubs in the draw is actually weighted.

One of the reasons Real are Arsenal' s most likely last - 16 opponent is because they cannot face the winners of their group, Borussia Dortmund, or domestic rivals Barcelona and Atletico Madrid in the first knockout round.

Manchester City' s potential last 16 opponent : Napoli, Atletico, Monaco, Dortmund, Juventus . Of the clubs available to them, the most likely option for Arsenal and Leicester is Real Madrid . The Gunners were humiliated by Liverpool at the weekend and now even the squad are unhappy with the

The draw for the Last 16 of the Champions League takes place on Monday and Liverpool fans are already looking forward to finding out their next European opponents.

At this stage of the competition, sides who won their group will face a runner-up from another group and vice versa. It’s important to note that teams can not be drawn against a side from their own country, nor can they be drawn against a side who they faced in the group stages.

What that means is that, unlike day the FA Cup draw where the chances of drawing any team are equal, the probability of facing certain clubs in the draw is actually weighted.

So, we know that Liverpool will face either Basel, Bayern Munich, Juventus, Porto, Real Madrid or Shakhtar Donetsk but what is the probability of being drawn against each club?

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Arsenal' s most likely opponents are German giants Bayern Munich. The least likely draws, apart from those which are impossible due to UEFA rules, are : Real Madrid vs Juventus or Shakhtar Donetsk: Barcelona vs Juventus , Shakhtar or Basle; Atletico Madrid vs Shakhtar or Basle; and Porto

Chelsea, Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur have confirmed their spots in the knockout stages of the competition and Manchester United and Liverpool too are likely to follow suit. Possible Opponents : Bayern Munich, Roma, Juventus , Sevilla, Shakhtar Donetsk, Porto, Real Madrid .

a man holding a football ball: Clive Brunskill/Getty Images Sport © Clive Brunskill/Getty Images Sport Clive Brunskill/Getty Images Sport

The most likely Last 16 ties for the Reds are with either Real Madrid or Juventus. There is a 18.8% chance that Jurgen Klopp’s side will be drawn to face the competition holders and the same can be said for the chances of them facing last season’s runners-up.

The next most likely ties are against either Basel or Shakhtar; there is a 15.9% chance of being drawn against either side.

Finally, the least likely draws for Liverpool are against Bayern Munich and Porto as the chances of being drawn against those sides is 15.3%.

So, the numbers say Liverpool are likely to be heading to Madrid or Turin in February, we’ll find out on Monday if that’s the case.

Liverpool FC Training and Press Conference © Clive Brunskill/Getty Images Sport Liverpool FC Training and Press Conference

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