India Secrets of BJP's success in Karnataka Assembly election

17:50  15 may  2018
17:50  15 may  2018 Source:   indiatoday.in

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12:34 IST: Secrets of BJP ' s success in Karnataka The BJP has surprised many poll pundits who predicted the Congress as the single-largest party and a hung Assembly making the JD (S) a mighty kingmaker.

The numbers are all fluid right now and here are the live updates from the Karnataka assembly election results. 12:34 IST: Secrets of BJP ' s success in Karnataka The BJP has surprised many poll pundits who The secrets of the BJP ' s performance in Karnataka lie in three regions of the state.

The secrets of the BJP's performance in Karnataka lie in three regions of the state. These are Bombay Karnataka, Coastal Karnataka and Central Karnataka. The party has also done reasonably well in Hyderabad Karnataka.: Secrets of BJP's success in Karnataka Assembly election © Prabhash K Dutta Secrets of BJP's success in Karnataka Assembly election

The BJP has surprised many poll pundits who predicted the Congress as the single-largest party and a hung assembly making the JD (S) a mighty kingmaker. But the BJP looks all set to form the next government in Karnataka, in all probability, on its own.

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The secrets of the BJP's performance in Karnataka lie in three regions of the state. These are Bombay Karnataka, Coastal Karnataka and Central Karnataka. The party has also done reasonably well in Hyderabad Karnataka.

Bombay Karnataka

The Congress had performed exceptionally well in this Lingayat dominated region of Karnataka. The party had won 30 seats in the region while the BJP got 15 seats. Current tally was 31 and 13 for the Congress and the BJP from Bombay Karnataka. The JD (S) won just one.

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This time, the BJP has improved its tally from 13 to 30 while the Congress has suffered a loss of 14 -- from 31 to 17. The JD (S) has marginally improved from one to two seats. Others have four seats in Bombay Karnataka.

Bombay Karnataka comprises of districts that were carved out from the former state of Bombay -- Bijapur, Bagalkot, Belgaum, Dharwad, Gadag and Haveri -- and has 50 assembly seats.

In 2014, the BJP secured 51 per cent of votes against 43 per cent of the Congress. The BJP was leading in 39 assembly segments in 2014 while the Congress was ahead in 11.

Coastal Karnataka

Coastal Karnataka has three districts -- Uttar Kannada, Udupi and Dakshin Kannada -- having direct access to the Arabian Sea sending 19 legislators to Karnataka assembly. In 2013, the Congress secured 13 seats and 43 per cent votes in Coastal Karnataka while the BJP won only three seats with 34 per cent vote share.

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The BJP has swept Coastal Karnataka this time winning 16 of 19 seats. The Congress has suffered a loss of 10 seats in a region having sizeable population of Christians and Muslims. This was also the region where the BJP's firebrand leader and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath addressed quite a few rallies in here.

The Karnataka assembly election results in Coastal Karnataka are consistent with the voting pattern in the Lok Sabha polls in 2014. The BJP had then polled 55 per cent votes in Coastal Karnataka and was leading in 17 of the 19 constituencies.

Central Karnataka

The four districts of Shimoga (BJP's chief ministerial candidate BS Yeddyurappa's home turf), Chikmagalur, Davangere and Chitradurga form the Central Karnataka region having 26 seats. The BJP has won 20 seats in the region with the Congress winning the rest six. The JD (S) failed to secure a seat here.

In 2013, the Congress had won 15 seats followed by the JD (S) which got six seats. The BJP had to content with only four victories in Central Karnataka. This region has strong presence of Veershaivas and Lingayats. The BJP's success in Central Karnataka is a signal that Chief Minister Siddaramaiah's move to grant minority status to Lingayats failed to split the community vote.

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While BJP has a base in Urban areas , the rural factions are tilted towards Congress. According to Election Commission data,there are around 70 urban and 154 rural assembly constituencies in Karnataka .

Hyderabad Karnataka

This is another region that seems to have worked for the BJP in Karnataka assembly election even though the Congress has fared better in Hyderabad Karnataka. Of the 40 assembly seats in Hyderabad Karnataka, the BJP has secured 16 seats against its last election's tally of 7.

The Congress, on the other hand, has not done badly winning 21 seats. Its last election's tally was 23 in Hyderabad Karnataka. But, with the BJP winning more than double its previous tally, the party emerged single-largest in Karnataka Assembly this time.

Hyderabad Karnataka comprises of the districts that were once part of the princely state of Hyderabad. These districts -- Bidar, Gulbarg, Yadgir, Raichur and Koppal -- have 40 assembly segments. The region has sizeable population of the Lingayats and OBCs. The re-entry of Yeddyurappa, Reddy brothers and B Sreeramulu in the BJP seems to have worked in BJP's favour here.

The BJP was leading in 23 of 40 assembly constituencies in Hyderabad Karnataka in 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The Congress was ahead in 17 seats.

The Rest

The saffron party has also improved its performance in Old Mysore region where the BJP improved its tally from two to 11. The BJP has almost repeated its performance in Bengaluru regions. It had won 12 seats in 2013 and was leading in almost the same number of constituencies this time.

In all, the BJP was leading (or had won) 105 seats in Karnataka assembly election at the time of filing this report. The final tally may vary a little. Voting was held on 222 of 224 Karnataka assembly seats.

Polling for the RR Nagar seat was deferred to May 28 following complaints of electoral malpractices while election was cancelled at Jayanagar seat after the BJP candidate here died.


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